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Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23454 · Census Tract 51810043002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$883K
Downside (P10)
$759K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$984K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.36M
+54% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $655K | $664K | $648K | $656K | $675K | $688K | $683K | $802K | $837K | $853K | $883K | $921K | $938K | $984K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$228,314 | -$219,414 | -$235,014 | -$227,714 | -$208,414 | -$195,414 | -$200,614 | -$81,814 | -$46,214 | -$30,114 | +$37,498 | +$54,963 | +$100,252 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.8% | -24.8% | -26.6% | -25.8% | -23.6% | -22.1% | -22.7% | -9.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | +4.2% | +6.2% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $796K | $762K | $759K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$796K to $1.2M
41.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$759K to $1.4M
60.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | +11.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043400) | $1.01M | $1.11M | +10.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045412) | $860K | $940K | +9.3% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 042000) | $897K | $970K | +8.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044008) | $942K | $1.01M | +7.3% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043004) | $834K | $883K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | +11.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | $599K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046013) | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23454 · Census Tract 51810043002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$883K
Downside (P10)
$759K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$984K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.36M
+54% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $655K | $664K | $648K | $656K | $675K | $688K | $683K | $802K | $837K | $853K | $883K | $921K | $938K | $984K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$228,314 | -$219,414 | -$235,014 | -$227,714 | -$208,414 | -$195,414 | -$200,614 | -$81,814 | -$46,214 | -$30,114 | +$37,498 | +$54,963 | +$100,252 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.8% | -24.8% | -26.6% | -25.8% | -23.6% | -22.1% | -22.7% | -9.3% | -5.2% | -3.4% | +4.2% | +6.2% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $796K | $762K | $759K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$796K to $1.2M
41.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$759K to $1.4M
60.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | +11.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043400) | $1.01M | $1.11M | +10.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045412) | $860K | $940K | +9.3% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 042000) | $897K | $970K | +8.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044008) | $942K | $1.01M | +7.3% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043004) | $834K | $883K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | +11.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 043005) | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046211) | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045415) | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 044005) | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046009) | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23454 · (Tract 430.2) | $885K | $984K | $599K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 045810) | $245K | $264K | $135K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040200) | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 046013) | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040406) | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach (Tract 040405) | $186K | $194K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
