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Carroll, VA · ZIP 24343 · Census Tract 51035080100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$181K
Downside (P10)
$154K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$208K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$251K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $129K | $138K | $134K | $132K | $129K | $117K | $117K | $140K | $137K | $170K | $181K | $191K | $199K | $208K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$51,161 | -$42,361 | -$46,161 | -$48,961 | -$51,761 | -$63,761 | -$63,861 | -$40,461 | -$44,061 | -$10,661 | +$10,766 | +$18,721 | +$26,997 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.3% | -23.5% | -25.6% | -27.1% | -28.7% | -35.3% | -35.4% | -22.4% | -24.4% | -5.9% | +6.0% | +10.4% | +15.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $159K | $159K | $154K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $232K | $240K | $251K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$159K to $232K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$154K to $251K
46.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Laurel Fork (Tract 080502) | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080402) | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Laurel Fork (Tract 080501) | $168K | $175K | +3.9% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080401) | $167K | $168K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | $97K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Carroll, VA · ZIP 24343 · Census Tract 51035080100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$181K
Downside (P10)
$154K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$208K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$251K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $129K | $138K | $134K | $132K | $129K | $117K | $117K | $140K | $137K | $170K | $181K | $191K | $199K | $208K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$51,161 | -$42,361 | -$46,161 | -$48,961 | -$51,761 | -$63,761 | -$63,861 | -$40,461 | -$44,061 | -$10,661 | +$10,766 | +$18,721 | +$26,997 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.3% | -23.5% | -25.6% | -27.1% | -28.7% | -35.3% | -35.4% | -22.4% | -24.4% | -5.9% | +6.0% | +10.4% | +15.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $159K | $159K | $154K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $232K | $240K | $251K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$159K to $232K
38.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$154K to $251K
46.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Laurel Fork (Tract 080502) | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080402) | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Laurel Fork (Tract 080501) | $168K | $175K | +3.9% | |
| Piper Gap (Tract 080401) | $167K | $168K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | $97K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080604) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Fancy Gap (Tract 080603) | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
