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Carroll, VA · ZIP 24317 · Census Tract 51035080604 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$125K
Downside (P10)
$105K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$133K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$170K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $76K | $98K | $107K | $121K | $125K | $130K | $134K | $133K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$45,872 | -$49,472 | -$27,472 | -$18,272 | -$4,672 | +$4,262 | +$8,988 | +$7,265 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.6% | -39.5% | -21.9% | -14.6% | -3.7% | +3.4% | +7.2% | +5.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $106K | $104K | $105K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $149K | $153K | $170K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$106K to $149K
32.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$105K to $170K
48.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Fancy Gap | $136K | $140K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | $90K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Carroll, VA · ZIP 24317 · Census Tract 51035080604 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$125K
Downside (P10)
$105K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$133K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$170K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $79K | $76K | $98K | $107K | $121K | $125K | $130K | $134K | $133K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$45,872 | -$49,472 | -$27,472 | -$18,272 | -$4,672 | +$4,262 | +$8,988 | +$7,265 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.6% | -39.5% | -21.9% | -14.6% | -3.7% | +3.4% | +7.2% | +5.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $106K | $104K | $105K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $149K | $153K | $170K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$106K to $149K
32.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$105K to $170K
48.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | +4.4% | |
| Fancy Gap | $136K | $140K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | +8.0% | |
| Pine Creek | $173K | $208K | +20.0% | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | +7.7% | |
| Sulphur Springs | $147K | $157K | +7.3% | |
| Laurel Fork | $192K | $206K | +7.0% | |
| Piper Gap | $165K | $174K | +5.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fancy Gap · Cana · (Tract 806.4) | $123K | $133K | $64K | |
| Laurel Fork | $168K | $175K | $90K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080300) | $147K | $157K | $78K | |
| Sulphur Springs (Tract 080200) | $147K | $153K | $76K | |
| Fancy Gap area | $128K | $138K | $69K | |
| Fancy Gap | $136K | $140K | $55K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
