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Smith, TX · Census Tract 48423600007 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$617K
Downside (P10)
$266K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$539K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+64% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 24% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $617K | $608K | $548K | $534K | $539K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$8,861 | -$68,964 | -$82,714 | -$77,938 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -1.4% | -11.2% | -13.4% | -12.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $370K | $275K | $253K | $266K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $873K | $907K | $952K | $1.0M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$370K to $873K
82.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$266K to $1.0M
138.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | -12.6% | |
| Bullard | $486K | $506K | +4.1% | |
| Smith (Tract 840003) | $666K | $618K | -7.2% | |
| Smith (Tract 880005) | $638K | $592K | -7.3% | |
| Smith (Tract 760002) | $628K | $577K | -8.1% | |
| Smith (Tract 000005) | $607K | $538K | -11.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | -12.6% | |
| Tyler (Tract 000100) | $146K | $171K | +16.9% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002013) | $440K | $508K | +15.5% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002009) | $274K | $314K | +14.7% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001605) | $227K | $255K | +12.3% | |
| Tyler East | $294K | $327K | +11.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | $748K | |
| Tyler (Tract 001200) | $212K | $214K | $56K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000500) | $101K | $107K | $50K | |
| Tyler (Tract 001701) | $120K | $121K | $28K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000201) | $101K | $103K | $25K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000400) | $98K | $94K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Smith, TX · Census Tract 48423600007 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$617K
Downside (P10)
$266K
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$539K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.01M
+64% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 24% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $617K | $608K | $548K | $534K | $539K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$8,861 | -$68,964 | -$82,714 | -$77,938 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -1.4% | -11.2% | -13.4% | -12.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $370K | $275K | $253K | $266K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $873K | $907K | $952K | $1.0M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$370K to $873K
82.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$266K to $1.0M
138.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | -12.6% | |
| Bullard | $486K | $506K | +4.1% | |
| Smith (Tract 840003) | $666K | $618K | -7.2% | |
| Smith (Tract 880005) | $638K | $592K | -7.3% | |
| Smith (Tract 760002) | $628K | $577K | -8.1% | |
| Smith (Tract 000005) | $607K | $538K | -11.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | -12.6% | |
| Tyler (Tract 000100) | $146K | $171K | +16.9% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002013) | $440K | $508K | +15.5% | |
| Whitehouse (Tract 002009) | $274K | $314K | +14.7% | |
| Tyler (Tract 001605) | $227K | $255K | +12.3% | |
| Tyler East | $294K | $327K | +11.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600007 | $617K | $539K | $748K | |
| Tyler (Tract 001200) | $212K | $214K | $56K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000500) | $101K | $107K | $50K | |
| Tyler (Tract 001701) | $120K | $121K | $28K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000201) | $101K | $103K | $25K | |
| Tyler (Tract 000400) | $98K | $94K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
