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Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78602 · Census Tract 48021950506 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$194K
Downside (P10)
$151K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$225K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$268K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $117K | $110K | $123K | $170K | $188K | $194K | $200K | $214K | $225K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$77,699 | -$84,099 | -$71,099 | -$24,899 | -$6,199 | +$5,560 | +$20,031 | +$30,679 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.0% | -43.3% | -36.6% | -12.8% | -3.2% | +2.9% | +10.3% | +15.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $155K | $150K | $151K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $240K | $256K | $268K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$155K to $240K
42.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$151K to $268K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950700) | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950602) | $281K | $311K | +11.0% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950601) | $268K | $289K | +7.9% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $248K | $263K | +6.2% | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950505) | $286K | $324K | +13.2% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950401) | $314K | $354K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | $117K | |
| Smithville (Tract 950602) | $281K | $311K | $152K | |
| Bastrop | $297K | $294K | $152K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Smithville (Tract 950700) | $254K | $293K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78602 · Census Tract 48021950506 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$194K
Downside (P10)
$151K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$225K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$268K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $117K | $110K | $123K | $170K | $188K | $194K | $200K | $214K | $225K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$77,699 | -$84,099 | -$71,099 | -$24,899 | -$6,199 | +$5,560 | +$20,031 | +$30,679 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -40.0% | -43.3% | -36.6% | -12.8% | -3.2% | +2.9% | +10.3% | +15.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $155K | $150K | $151K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $240K | $256K | $268K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$155K to $240K
42.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$151K to $268K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950700) | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950602) | $281K | $311K | +11.0% | |
| Smithville (Tract 950601) | $268K | $289K | +7.9% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $248K | $263K | +6.2% | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950505) | $286K | $324K | +13.2% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950401) | $314K | $354K | +12.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop · 78602 · (Tract 9505.6) | $192K | $225K | $117K | |
| Smithville (Tract 950602) | $281K | $311K | $152K | |
| Bastrop | $297K | $294K | $152K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Smithville (Tract 950700) | $254K | $293K | $124K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
