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Austin, TX · ZIP 78653 · Census Tract 48453042400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$430K
Downside (P10)
$386K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$484K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$692K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $265K | $280K | $349K | $391K | $422K | $430K | $447K | $481K | $484K | $441K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$165,056 | -$150,456 | -$81,156 | -$39,056 | -$7,956 | +$16,620 | +$50,695 | +$53,328 | +$10,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.4% | -35.0% | -18.9% | -9.1% | -1.8% | +3.9% | +11.8% | +12.4% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $393K | $395K | $386K | $400K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $547K | $570K | $692K | $486K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$393K to $547K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$400K to $486K
19.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002445) | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Austin (Tract 002409) | $428K | $475K | +11.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002321) | $425K | $464K | +9.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002444) | $429K | $464K | +8.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 001311) | $425K | $460K | +8.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002437) | $451K | $542K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 000803) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| Austin (Tract 030100) | $569K | $678K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 000607) | $293K | $317K | $157K | |
| Austin (Tract 002441) | $199K | $208K | $135K | |
| Austin (Tract 002450) | $221K | $249K | $129K | |
| Austin (Tract 002327) | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Austin (Tract 002430) | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Austin, TX · ZIP 78653 · Census Tract 48453042400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$430K
Downside (P10)
$386K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$484K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$692K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $265K | $280K | $349K | $391K | $422K | $430K | $447K | $481K | $484K | $441K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$165,056 | -$150,456 | -$81,156 | -$39,056 | -$7,956 | +$16,620 | +$50,695 | +$53,328 | +$10,278 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.4% | -35.0% | -18.9% | -9.1% | -1.8% | +3.9% | +11.8% | +12.4% | +2.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $393K | $395K | $386K | $400K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $547K | $570K | $692K | $486K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$393K to $547K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$400K to $486K
19.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002445) | $431K | $486K | +12.7% | |
| Austin (Tract 002409) | $428K | $475K | +11.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002321) | $425K | $464K | +9.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002444) | $429K | $464K | +8.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 001311) | $425K | $460K | +8.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 002437) | $451K | $542K | +20.2% | |
| Austin (Tract 000803) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| Austin (Tract 030100) | $569K | $678K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin (Tract 000607) | $293K | $317K | $157K | |
| Austin (Tract 002441) | $199K | $208K | $135K | |
| Austin (Tract 002450) | $221K | $249K | $129K | |
| Austin (Tract 002327) | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Austin (Tract 002430) | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
