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Sumter, SC · ZIP 29040 · Census Tract 45085000202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$188K
Downside (P10)
$174K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $127K | $121K | $125K | $130K | $139K | $151K | $155K | $171K | $188K | $186K | $188K | $201K | $207K | $216K | $192K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,779 | -$66,579 | -$63,179 | -$58,379 | -$49,079 | -$37,379 | -$32,879 | -$17,079 | -$479 | -$2,179 | +$13,066 | +$19,274 | +$27,876 | +$3,876 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -35.4% | -33.6% | -31.1% | -26.1% | -19.9% | -17.5% | -9.1% | -0.3% | -1.2% | +7.0% | +10.3% | +14.8% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $176K | $174K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $224K | $247K | $272K | $216K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$175K to $224K
24.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $216K
24.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Sumter | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Sumter North | $179K | $195K | +9.3% | |
| Sumter Northeast | $200K | $213K | +6.2% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000201) | $179K | $189K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Privateer | $205K | $229K | +11.9% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000901) | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | +11.1% | |
| Sumter (Tract 001704) | $179K | $198K | +10.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | $98K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001100) | $77K | $80K | $50K | |
| Sumter (Tract 000800) | $95K | $99K | $45K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001500) | $83K | $90K | $43K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001600) | $65K | $70K | $42K | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sumter, SC · ZIP 29040 · Census Tract 45085000202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$188K
Downside (P10)
$174K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $127K | $121K | $125K | $130K | $139K | $151K | $155K | $171K | $188K | $186K | $188K | $201K | $207K | $216K | $192K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$60,779 | -$66,579 | -$63,179 | -$58,379 | -$49,079 | -$37,379 | -$32,879 | -$17,079 | -$479 | -$2,179 | +$13,066 | +$19,274 | +$27,876 | +$3,876 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -35.4% | -33.6% | -31.1% | -26.1% | -19.9% | -17.5% | -9.1% | -0.3% | -1.2% | +7.0% | +10.3% | +14.8% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $176K | $174K | $170K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $224K | $247K | $272K | $216K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$175K to $224K
24.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$170K to $216K
24.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Sumter | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Sumter North | $179K | $195K | +9.3% | |
| Sumter Northeast | $200K | $213K | +6.2% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000201) | $179K | $189K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Privateer | $205K | $229K | +11.9% | |
| Sumter (Tract 000901) | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | +11.1% | |
| Sumter (Tract 001704) | $179K | $198K | +10.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaw AFB-Horatio | $188K | $216K | $98K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001100) | $77K | $80K | $50K | |
| Sumter (Tract 000800) | $95K | $99K | $45K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001500) | $83K | $90K | $43K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001600) | $65K | $70K | $42K | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
