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Herkimer, NY · ZIP 13439 · Census Tract 36043010100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$179K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$243K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $110K | $109K | $111K | $111K | $118K | $121K | $148K | $158K | $171K | $179K | $186K | $193K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$74,715 | -$68,515 | -$70,115 | -$67,615 | -$67,615 | -$60,515 | -$57,815 | -$31,315 | -$21,415 | -$8,015 | +$7,019 | +$14,434 | +$20,691 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.8% | -38.3% | -39.2% | -37.8% | -37.8% | -33.8% | -32.3% | -17.5% | -12.0% | -4.5% | +3.9% | +8.1% | +11.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $150K | $146K | $146K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $216K | $231K | $243K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$150K to $216K
35.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$146K to $243K
48.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | +15.7% | |
| Herkimer | $166K | $192K | +15.3% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% | |
| Danube area | $153K | $168K | +9.9% | |
| Frankfort | $197K | $213K | +8.1% | |
| Fairfield area | $187K | $198K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | +15.7% | |
| Ohio area | $214K | $250K | +16.7% | |
| Herkimer (Tract 011301) | $166K | $192K | +15.3% | |
| Webb | $339K | $382K | +12.7% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% | |
| Herkimer (Tract 011100) | $98K | $110K | +11.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | $97K | |
| Salisbury | $124K | $135K | $60K | |
| Little Falls area | $96K | $105K | $58K | |
| German Flatts | $83K | $91K | $51K | |
| Dolgeville | $113K | $116K | $46K | |
| Schuyler | $117K | $124K | $44K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Herkimer, NY · ZIP 13439 · Census Tract 36043010100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$179K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$243K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $104K | $110K | $109K | $111K | $111K | $118K | $121K | $148K | $158K | $171K | $179K | $186K | $193K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$74,715 | -$68,515 | -$70,115 | -$67,615 | -$67,615 | -$60,515 | -$57,815 | -$31,315 | -$21,415 | -$8,015 | +$7,019 | +$14,434 | +$20,691 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.8% | -38.3% | -39.2% | -37.8% | -37.8% | -33.8% | -32.3% | -17.5% | -12.0% | -4.5% | +3.9% | +8.1% | +11.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $150K | $146K | $146K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $216K | $231K | $243K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$150K to $216K
35.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$146K to $243K
48.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | +15.7% | |
| Herkimer | $166K | $192K | +15.3% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% | |
| Danube area | $153K | $168K | +9.9% | |
| Frankfort | $197K | $213K | +8.1% | |
| Fairfield area | $187K | $198K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | +15.7% | |
| Ohio area | $214K | $250K | +16.7% | |
| Herkimer (Tract 011301) | $166K | $192K | +15.3% | |
| Webb | $339K | $382K | +12.7% | |
| German Flatts | $186K | $210K | +12.6% | |
| Herkimer (Tract 011100) | $98K | $110K | +11.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia area | $172K | $200K | $97K | |
| Salisbury | $124K | $135K | $60K | |
| Little Falls area | $96K | $105K | $58K | |
| German Flatts | $83K | $91K | $51K | |
| Dolgeville | $113K | $116K | $46K | |
| Schuyler | $117K | $124K | $44K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
