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Story, IA · ZIP 50014 · Census Tract 19169001304 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$438K
Downside (P10)
$398K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$502K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$631K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $184K | $275K | $326K | $356K | $425K | $438K | $445K | $456K | $502K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$253,799 | -$163,599 | -$112,499 | -$82,399 | -$13,099 | +$7,318 | +$17,887 | +$63,715 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.9% | -37.3% | -25.7% | -18.8% | -3.0% | +1.7% | +4.1% | +14.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $390K | $393K | $398K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $517K | $548K | $631K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$390K to $517K
28.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$398K to $631K
46.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | +17.2% | |
| Washington | $338K | $389K | +15.1% | |
| Franklin (Tract 000104) | $334K | $374K | +11.7% | |
| Ames (Tract 001101) | $365K | $403K | +10.6% | |
| Ames (Tract 000105) | $396K | $430K | +8.5% | |
| Franklin (Tract 000102) | $381K | $400K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | +17.2% | |
| Milford area | $296K | $357K | +21.0% | |
| Washington | $338K | $389K | +15.1% | |
| Ames (Tract 000200) | $247K | $279K | +12.9% | |
| Ames (Tract 000600) | $296K | $334K | +12.7% | |
| Ames (Tract 000400) | $260K | $292K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | $233K | |
| Collins area | $203K | $215K | $120K | |
| Sherman area | $216K | $220K | $120K | |
| Nevada | $200K | $211K | $110K | |
| Nevada area | $182K | $191K | $80K | |
| Ames | $58K | $62K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Story, IA · ZIP 50014 · Census Tract 19169001304 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$438K
Downside (P10)
$398K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$502K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$631K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $184K | $275K | $326K | $356K | $425K | $438K | $445K | $456K | $502K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$253,799 | -$163,599 | -$112,499 | -$82,399 | -$13,099 | +$7,318 | +$17,887 | +$63,715 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.9% | -37.3% | -25.7% | -18.8% | -3.0% | +1.7% | +4.1% | +14.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $390K | $393K | $398K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $517K | $548K | $631K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$390K to $517K
28.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$398K to $631K
46.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | +17.2% | |
| Washington | $338K | $389K | +15.1% | |
| Franklin (Tract 000104) | $334K | $374K | +11.7% | |
| Ames (Tract 001101) | $365K | $403K | +10.6% | |
| Ames (Tract 000105) | $396K | $430K | +8.5% | |
| Franklin (Tract 000102) | $381K | $400K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | +17.2% | |
| Milford area | $296K | $357K | +21.0% | |
| Washington | $338K | $389K | +15.1% | |
| Ames (Tract 000200) | $247K | $279K | +12.9% | |
| Ames (Tract 000600) | $296K | $334K | +12.7% | |
| Ames (Tract 000400) | $260K | $292K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ames · 50014 · (Tract 13.4) | $428K | $502K | $233K | |
| Collins area | $203K | $215K | $120K | |
| Sherman area | $216K | $220K | $120K | |
| Nevada | $200K | $211K | $110K | |
| Nevada area | $182K | $191K | $80K | |
| Ames | $58K | $62K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
