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Pasco, FL · ZIP 34691 · Census Tract 12101030407 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$235K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$243K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$349K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $64K | $66K | $69K | $76K | $97K | $106K | $138K | $166K | $195K | $230K | $235K | $236K | $242K | $243K | $235K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$171,596 | -$169,796 | -$166,396 | -$159,396 | -$138,896 | -$129,496 | -$97,096 | -$69,496 | -$40,896 | -$5,896 | +$178 | +$6,302 | +$7,371 | -$312 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -72.9% | -72.1% | -70.7% | -67.7% | -59.0% | -55.0% | -41.2% | -29.5% | -17.4% | -2.5% | +0.1% | +2.7% | +3.1% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $215K | $217K | $211K | $211K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $276K | $304K | $349K | $269K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$215K to $276K
26.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$211K to $269K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | +4.9% | |
| Zephyrhills | $233K | $262K | +12.3% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031301) | $236K | $255K | +8.2% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031808) | $232K | $247K | +6.5% | |
| Shady Hills | $235K | $243K | +3.6% | |
| Dade City | $238K | $242K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | +4.9% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | $138K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pasco, FL · ZIP 34691 · Census Tract 12101030407 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$235K
Downside (P10)
$211K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$243K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$349K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $64K | $66K | $69K | $76K | $97K | $106K | $138K | $166K | $195K | $230K | $235K | $236K | $242K | $243K | $235K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$171,596 | -$169,796 | -$166,396 | -$159,396 | -$138,896 | -$129,496 | -$97,096 | -$69,496 | -$40,896 | -$5,896 | +$178 | +$6,302 | +$7,371 | -$312 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -72.9% | -72.1% | -70.7% | -67.7% | -59.0% | -55.0% | -41.2% | -29.5% | -17.4% | -2.5% | +0.1% | +2.7% | +3.1% | -0.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $215K | $217K | $211K | $211K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $276K | $304K | $349K | $269K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$215K to $276K
26.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$211K to $269K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | +4.9% | |
| Zephyrhills | $233K | $262K | +12.3% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031301) | $236K | $255K | +8.2% | |
| Port Richey (Tract 031808) | $232K | $247K | +6.5% | |
| Shady Hills | $235K | $243K | +3.6% | |
| Dade City | $238K | $242K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | +4.9% | |
| Central Pasco | $442K | $545K | +23.2% | |
| Lacoochee | $265K | $312K | +17.9% | |
| Land O' Lakes | $389K | $455K | +17.1% | |
| New Port Richey | $448K | $521K | +16.4% | |
| Dade City | $230K | $266K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Square | $231K | $243K | $138K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033014) | $73K | $80K | $45K | |
| Dade City | $73K | $79K | $42K | |
| Zephyrhills (Tract 033101) | $76K | $80K | $41K | |
| Bayonet Point | $119K | $123K | $39K | |
| Port Richey | $65K | $73K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
