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Bay, FL · ZIP 32404 · Census Tract 12005000500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$331K
Downside (P10)
$280K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$348K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$407K
+23% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +23%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $186K | $184K | $193K | $196K | $214K | $240K | $245K | $286K | $315K | $323K | $331K | $338K | $341K | $348K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$145,075 | -$147,075 | -$137,575 | -$134,275 | -$116,575 | -$90,975 | -$85,775 | -$44,775 | -$15,475 | -$7,875 | +$6,904 | +$10,550 | +$17,222 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.9% | -44.5% | -41.6% | -40.6% | -35.3% | -27.5% | -25.9% | -13.5% | -4.7% | -2.4% | +2.1% | +3.2% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $284K | $289K | $280K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $374K | $405K | $407K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$284K to $374K
26.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$280K to $407K
36.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | +5.9% | |
| Panama City (Tract 000806) | $321K | $354K | +10.5% | |
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $345K | $378K | +9.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $347K | $365K | +5.1% | |
| Lynn Haven | $303K | $314K | +3.6% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001301) | $330K | $330K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | +5.9% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | $128K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Bay, FL · ZIP 32404 · Census Tract 12005000500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$331K
Downside (P10)
$280K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$348K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$407K
+23% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +23%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $186K | $184K | $193K | $196K | $214K | $240K | $245K | $286K | $315K | $323K | $331K | $338K | $341K | $348K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$145,075 | -$147,075 | -$137,575 | -$134,275 | -$116,575 | -$90,975 | -$85,775 | -$44,775 | -$15,475 | -$7,875 | +$6,904 | +$10,550 | +$17,222 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -43.9% | -44.5% | -41.6% | -40.6% | -35.3% | -27.5% | -25.9% | -13.5% | -4.7% | -2.4% | +2.1% | +3.2% | +5.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $284K | $289K | $280K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $374K | $405K | $407K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$284K to $374K
26.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$280K to $407K
36.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | +5.9% | |
| Panama City (Tract 000806) | $321K | $354K | +10.5% | |
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $345K | $378K | +9.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $347K | $365K | +5.1% | |
| Lynn Haven | $303K | $314K | +3.6% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001301) | $330K | $330K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | +5.9% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City · 32404 · (Tract 5) | $329K | $348K | $128K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
