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Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95403 · Census Tract 06097152904 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$723K
Downside (P10)
$581K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$757K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$923K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $388K | $426K | $467K | $506K | $568K | $609K | $627K | $647K | $650K | $717K | $723K | $738K | $738K | $757K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$335,724 | -$297,224 | -$256,824 | -$217,124 | -$155,724 | -$114,124 | -$96,424 | -$76,224 | -$73,124 | -$6,224 | +$14,571 | +$14,541 | +$33,186 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.4% | -41.1% | -35.5% | -30.0% | -21.5% | -15.8% | -13.3% | -10.5% | -10.1% | -0.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +4.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $652K | $622K | $581K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $857K | $888K | $923K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$652K to $857K
27.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$581K to $923K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | +5.4% | |
| Petaluma | $708K | $806K | +13.8% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151701) | $703K | $797K | +13.3% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153005) | $743K | $807K | +8.6% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152201) | $713K | $764K | +7.2% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $744K | $784K | +5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | +5.4% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | $342K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Sonoma, CA · ZIP 95403 · Census Tract 06097152904 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$723K
Downside (P10)
$581K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$757K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$923K
+28% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $388K | $426K | $467K | $506K | $568K | $609K | $627K | $647K | $650K | $717K | $723K | $738K | $738K | $757K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$335,724 | -$297,224 | -$256,824 | -$217,124 | -$155,724 | -$114,124 | -$96,424 | -$76,224 | -$73,124 | -$6,224 | +$14,571 | +$14,541 | +$33,186 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.4% | -41.1% | -35.5% | -30.0% | -21.5% | -15.8% | -13.3% | -10.5% | -10.1% | -0.9% | +2.0% | +2.0% | +4.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $652K | $622K | $581K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $857K | $888K | $923K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$652K to $857K
27.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$581K to $923K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | +5.4% | |
| Petaluma | $708K | $806K | +13.8% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151701) | $703K | $797K | +13.3% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153005) | $743K | $807K | +8.6% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152201) | $713K | $764K | +7.2% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $744K | $784K | +5.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | +5.4% | |
| Sonoma | $917K | $1.10M | +19.8% | |
| Russian River-Sonoma Coast | $649K | $770K | +18.5% | |
| Petaluma | $601K | $712K | +18.4% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151504) | $769K | $903K | +17.5% | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152601) | $995K | $1.17M | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa · 95403 · (Tract 1529.4) | $718K | $757K | $342K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 153104) | $527K | $576K | $272K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152701) | $461K | $497K | $269K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152903) | $535K | $556K | $243K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 152804) | $438K | $478K | $221K | |
| Santa Rosa (Tract 151405) | $214K | $243K | $142K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
