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Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85140 · Census Tract 04021000217 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$431K
Downside (P10)
$368K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$456K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$617K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $226K | $239K | $283K | $359K | $430K | $431K | $438K | $441K | $456K | $450K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$205,506 | -$192,906 | -$148,506 | -$72,406 | -$1,206 | +$6,223 | +$9,586 | +$24,603 | +$18,267 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -47.6% | -44.7% | -34.4% | -16.8% | -0.3% | +1.4% | +2.2% | +5.7% | +4.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $365K | $380K | $368K | $398K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $501K | $545K | $617K | $501K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$365K to $501K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$398K to $501K
22.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | +4.7% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000225) | $424K | $475K | +12.1% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000216) | $435K | $482K | +11.0% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000228) | $427K | $470K | +10.1% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000220) | $430K | $468K | +8.9% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000229) | $423K | $451K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | +4.7% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | $249K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinal, AZ · ZIP 85140 · Census Tract 04021000217 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$431K
Downside (P10)
$368K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$456K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$617K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $226K | $239K | $283K | $359K | $430K | $431K | $438K | $441K | $456K | $450K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$205,506 | -$192,906 | -$148,506 | -$72,406 | -$1,206 | +$6,223 | +$9,586 | +$24,603 | +$18,267 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -47.6% | -44.7% | -34.4% | -16.8% | -0.3% | +1.4% | +2.2% | +5.7% | +4.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $365K | $380K | $368K | $398K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $501K | $545K | $617K | $501K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$365K to $501K
31.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$398K to $501K
22.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | +4.7% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000225) | $424K | $475K | +12.1% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000216) | $435K | $482K | +11.0% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000228) | $427K | $470K | +10.1% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000220) | $430K | $468K | +8.9% | |
| San Tan Valley (Tract 000229) | $423K | $451K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | +4.7% | |
| North Pinal | $600K | $697K | +16.2% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001714) | $362K | $420K | +16.0% | |
| Maricopa (Tract 001716) | $389K | $447K | +14.9% | |
| San Tan Valley | $458K | $525K | +14.7% | |
| Florence | $169K | $194K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Pinal | $436K | $456K | $249K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 000317) | $84K | $88K | $68K | |
| Eloy (Tract 001900) | $150K | $161K | $65K | |
| Eloy (Tract 002004) | $140K | $154K | $63K | |
| North Pinal (Tract 002300) | $134K | $150K | $62K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
