Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
View parcel and neighborhood forecasts, compare markets, or build with the API.
Loading forecast data...
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85204 · Census Tract 04013421501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$332K
Downside (P10)
$246K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$353K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$480K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $116K | $129K | $155K | $161K | $211K | $223K | $222K | $232K | $254K | $308K | $332K | $333K | $346K | $353K | $321K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$216,127 | -$203,327 | -$177,627 | -$171,627 | -$121,527 | -$108,927 | -$110,427 | -$100,627 | -$78,227 | -$24,027 | +$784 | +$13,613 | +$20,375 | -$10,866 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -65.1% | -61.2% | -53.5% | -51.7% | -36.6% | -32.8% | -33.2% | -30.3% | -23.5% | -7.2% | +0.2% | +4.1% | +6.1% | -3.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $271K | $245K | $246K | $284K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $423K | $451K | $480K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$271K to $423K
45.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$284K to $366K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix (Tract 082012) | $327K | $379K | +15.8% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 082002) | $333K | $384K | +15.2% | |
| Peoria | $331K | $371K | +12.1% | |
| Sun City West | $339K | $376K | +11.0% | |
| El Mirage | $334K | $359K | +7.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Phoenix, AZ · ZIP 85204 · Census Tract 04013421501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$332K
Downside (P10)
$246K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$353K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$480K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $116K | $129K | $155K | $161K | $211K | $223K | $222K | $232K | $254K | $308K | $332K | $333K | $346K | $353K | $321K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$216,127 | -$203,327 | -$177,627 | -$171,627 | -$121,527 | -$108,927 | -$110,427 | -$100,627 | -$78,227 | -$24,027 | +$784 | +$13,613 | +$20,375 | -$10,866 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -65.1% | -61.2% | -53.5% | -51.7% | -36.6% | -32.8% | -33.2% | -30.3% | -23.5% | -7.2% | +0.2% | +4.1% | +6.1% | -3.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $271K | $245K | $246K | $284K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $423K | $451K | $480K | $366K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$271K to $423K
45.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$284K to $366K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix (Tract 082012) | $327K | $379K | +15.8% | |
| Phoenix (Tract 082002) | $333K | $384K | +15.2% | |
| Peoria | $331K | $371K | +12.1% | |
| Sun City West | $339K | $376K | +11.0% | |
| El Mirage | $334K | $359K | +7.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | $290K | $347K | +19.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071915) | $261K | $310K | +18.6% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071911) | $355K | $419K | +18.2% | |
| Peoria (Tract 071910) | $310K | $365K | +17.8% | |
| Peoria (Tract 040537) | $761K | $896K | +17.7% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Worldcastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Worldcastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
